We calculate numerically the spectrum of ultra-high energy cosmic rays on E
arth assuming that their sources are distributed in space like the observed
galaxies. We use the CfA2 and the PSCz galaxy redshift surveys to model th
e local galaxy distribution, properly taking into account the galaxy select
ion functions for each survey. When the survey selection effects are includ
ed, we find that the local overdensity is only a factor of 2, an order of m
agnitude less than used in some earlier studies. An overdensity of 2 is not
enough to bridge the gap between the predicted number of events above 10(2
0) eV and the measured flux at these highest energies. This conclusion is p
articularly strong for soft injection spectra (proportional to E-3) where t
he observed number of events is 6 sigma higher than the expected one. Howev
er, if the injection spectrum is hard (proportional to E-2), the small loca
l overdensity helps bring the present data within 2 sigma of the low number
of events predicted above 1020 eV. In this case, the Greisen-Zatzepin-Kurm
in cutoff is not a cutoff but rather a feature in the cosmic ray spectrum.
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