BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CONTROL - PROSPECTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE

The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), which prohibits the acquisition of biological materials for hostile purposes and armed co nflict, entered into force in 1975 and now has the participation of 14 0 nations (158 nations have signed the BWC, but only 140 of these have also ratified it). However, there is no monitoring mechanism associat ed with the BWC. Diplomatic efforts are now under way to create a supp lemental, legally binding protocol to strengthen the convention. Measu res to strengthen the BWC are analogous to the diagnostic processes fa miliar to physicians; the problem facing negotiators is to identify pr ocedures with high positive and negative predictive value. Few propose d measures meet these criteria. However, the investigation of unusual disease outbreaks and allegations of use are highly diagnostic of illi cit activities while avoiding false-positive accusations. At the same time, such information generated by the BWC can contribute to worldwid e efforts to improve public health, control emergent disease, and esta blish an international norm against biological weapons proliferation.