Interannual variability of phytoplankton abundances in the North Atlantic

A framework is developed for examining spatial patterns of interannual vari ability in springtime chlorophyll concentrations as a response to physical changes. A simplified, two-layer bio-physical model reveals regional respon ses to interannual variability of convective mixing. Vertical mixing can pr omote productivity in the surface waters through enhanced nutrient supply, but also can retard productivity due to the transport of phytoplankton belo w Sverdrup's critical depth. The balance of these processes determines the regimes of response in the two-layer model. The regimes may be identified b y the ratio of the thickness of Sverdrup's critical layer during spring and the end of winter mixed layer, h(c)/h(m). The responses predicted by the s implified model are found in a more sophisticated four-compartment, nitroge n-based ecosystem model, driven by a general circulation model of the North Atlantic. Anomalously strong convective mixing leads to enhanced chlorophy ll concentrations in regions of shallow mixed layers (h(c)/h(m) similar to 1), such as the subtropics. In contrast, in the subpolar regions, where mix ed layers are deeper (h(c)/h(m) much less than 1), the sensitivity to conve ctive mixing is weaker, and increased mixing can lead to lower phytoplankto n abundances. The numerical model also reveals regions of more complex beha vior, such as the inter-gyre boundary, where advective supply of nutrients plays a significant role on interannual timescales. Preliminary analyses of in situ and remote observations from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series, Oce an Weather Station "India" and the Coastal Zone Color Scanner also show qua litative agreement. The conceptual framework provides a tool for the analys is of ongoing remote ocean-color observations. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Lt d. All rights reserved.