A low turnout landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997

Turnout at the 1997 British General Election fell to a post-war low of 71 p ercent, raising worried speculation about long term decline in political pa rticipation. On closer analysis, however, this judgement seems premature. M ost of the post-war decline in British turnout occurred between 1950 and 19 70, and there is no evidence of long term decline in general election turno ut between 1974 and 1997. The closeness of the electoral competition is a b etter predictor of national turnout than a secular trend. Close elections p roduce high turnout. but widely anticipated landslides (as in 1997) produce low turnouts. The 1997 election was also notable for the small ideological gap between the main parties. Analysis of individual voter abstention in 1 992 and 1997 reveals that changes from one year to the other in the perceiv ed difference between Labour and the Conservatives is crucial to accounting for the fall in turnout between the two contests. Turnout in 1997 was low because the result was widely anticipated and because relatively few saw im portant policy differences between the parties, not because British democra cy is in crisis.