Recovery from psychotic illness: a 15-and 25-year international follow-up study

Background Poorly defined cohorts and weak study designs have hampered cros s-cultural comparisons of course and outcome in schizophrenia. Aims To describe long-term outcome in 18 diverse treated incidence and prev alence cohorts. To compare mortality, 15- and 25-year illness trajectory an d the predictive strength of selected baseline and short-term course variab les. Method Historic prospective study. Standardised assessments of course and o utcome. Results About 75% traced. About 50% of surviving cases had favourable outco mes, but there was marked heterogeneity across geographic centres. In regre ssion models, early (2-year) course patterns were the strongest predictor o f 15-year outcome, but recovery varied by location; 16% of early unremittin g cases achieved late-phase recovery. Conclusions A significant proportion of treated incident cases of schizophr enia achieve favourable long-term outcome. Sociocultural conditions appear to modify long-term course. Early intervention programmes focused on social as well as pharmacological treatments may realise longer-term gains. Declaration of interest Funded by the Laureate Foundation, the World Health Organization and the participating centres (see Acknowledgements).