Climate change and cryptosporidiosis: A qualitative analysis

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis tran smission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram repre sentation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative an alysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporid iosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the add itional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking -waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from impr oved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disast er scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change p er se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend o n the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructur e maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment te chnologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.