Application of extinction and conservation theories for forest birds in Nicaragua

An increasing number of empirical studies have been done on the effects of tropical forest fragmentation on avian communities, but few researchers hav e applied these theories to assess the vulnerability of birds in poorly res earched countries such as Nicaragua. I used a logistic regression to determ ine which natural-history characteristics were most important in predicting a list of threatened birds known to occur in Nicaragua. The best model inc luded five macroecological variables (body weight, habitat specificity, tro phic group, forest preference, and biogeography within Nicaragua). I used t his model to generate predicted probabilities of extinction for all forest birds in Nicaragua. The predicted probability of extinction from the best m odel ranked 63% of the extinction-prone birds from La Selva, Costa Rica, an d 59% of the extinction-prone birds from Barro Colorado, Panama, in the fir st quartile of all forest birds recorded in Nicaragua. This method provides a first-order approximation of which species deserve global and national p riorities for conservation. The central and Atlantic regions of Nicaragua d eserve high priority for conservation at a global scale, whereas the Atlant ic region deserves the highest priority for conservation at a national scal e. The Nicaraguan Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment has don e an adequate job of identifying areas for conservation based on the propor tion of decreed nature reserves in each biogeographic region and the distri bution of forest birds with a high predicted probability of extinction. For est birds in central Nicaragua, however, may currently be the most vulnerab le to local extinction because of low forest cover within decreed reserves.