Simulating demographic and socioeconomic processes on household level and implications for giant panda habitats

Human activities have significantly affected wildlife habitats. Although th e ecological effects of human impacts have been demonstrated in many studie s, the socioeconomic drivers underlying these human impacts have seldom bee n studied. We developed a household-based, stochastic, and dynamic model th at simulates the impacts of household demographic and socioeconomic interac tions an fuelwood use, a key factor affecting the quantity and quality of h abitats for the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Using Wolong Nature Reserve (China) as a case study, this model mimics household production and consumption processes and integrates various demographic and socioeconomic factors. Household interviews conducted in 1998 within the Reserve provide d the data for parameterization. The simulation results fit well with both the data used in constructing the model and with a set of independent data. Age structure and cropland area were found to be the most sensitive factor s in terms of fuelwood consumption, and thus deserve more attention in pand a habitat conservation. This model could help reserve managers to understan d the interrelationships among local economy, local cultural traditions, an d habitat degradation, facilitating more scientific and economically effici ent policymaking. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.