Incidence and prevalence of all cancerous diseases in Italy: trends and implications

The burden of cancer in ageing populations is causing great concern, partic ularly in Italy with Europe's fastest growing elderly population. Studying all cancers combined in one group, although of limited medical value, is of great interest from the viewpoints of public health, epidemiology and the economy. Using mortality data and an estimate of cancer patients' survival we have estimated and projected incidence and prevalence in Italy of all ca ncers combined in one group. Five major phenomena are highlighted in the pa per: (1) the decrease in the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates among fema les and the stable mortality rates among males since 1990; (2) the changing pattern of cancer incidence since 1990, it has: started to decrease for fe males and is stabilising for males; (3) the decrease in cancer incidence am ong males and females born after 1940; (4) the increase in the proportion o f cancer patients that art: cured with calendar years of diagnosis; (5) the increase in the total and the healthy life expectancy (i.e. cancer-free) a mong the Italian population since 1970. The declining and flat trends in ag e-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality rates since 1990 is the combined effect of survival improvements and cancer risk reduction for younger cohor t groups, after 1940. These favourable trends contribute to the increase in healthy life expectation, thus supporting the idea that we live longer and healthier. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.