Does waist circumference predict fat gain in children?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify in a group of 8-y-old prep ubertal children the anthropometric parameter with the highest prediction p ower of overweight, measured 4y later. SUBJECTS: One-hundred and twelve Caucasian children (54 males, 58 females), aged 8.7 +/- 0.9y, were studied. RESULTS: An analysis of the association between relative body mass index (B MI) at follow-up (%) and some indexes of adiposity like relative BMI (%), w aist circumference, subscapular and triceps skinfolds, the sum of four skin folds and percentage fat mass measured at baseline, showed that relative BM I (relBMI) at baseline had the highest association with relBMI at follow-up (r=0.77; P <0.001); waist circumference had a slightly lower significant a ssociation with relBMI at follow-up (r=0.74; P <0.001). In a multiple regre ssion analysis, waist circumference (adjusted for age) accounted for simila r to 64% of the variation of relBMI at follow-up (P <0.001). RelBMI measure d at baseline accounted for similar to 59% of the variation of relBMI at fo llow-up (P <0.001). Multiple logistic regression analysis included waist ci rcumference, adjusted for age, mother's BMI and relBMI measured at baseline as independent variables in the final equation. In particular, each centim eter increase of waist circumference at the age of 8y doubled the risk of h aving a relBMI greater than 120% at the age of 12y. CONCLUSION: The results of this study, the first which has approached this investigation in children, showed that waist circumference measured at the age of 8y, which is simple to perform and easy to reproduce, may be a promi sing index to assess adiposity as well as to predict overweight at puberty.