The extratropical signal generated by a midlatitude SST anomaly. Part II: Influence on seasonal forecasts

A simple GCM based on a primitive equation model with empirically derived t ime-independent forcing is used to make forecasts in the extended to season al range. The results are analyzed in terms of the response to a midlatitud e Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), represented here by a hea ting perturbation. A set of 90-day, 30-member ensemble forecasts is made wi th 54 widely differing initial conditions, both with and without the SSTA. The development of the response, defined as the difference between ensemble means, is split into three 30-day averages: month 1, month 2, and month 3. During month 1, ensemble members separate, and the local response and remot e teleconnections are established. The local response is not very sensitive to the initial condition. In month 2, the extended range, the responses are relatively strong and var y greatly from one initial condition to another. However, a linear analysis reveals that large variations in the response do not correlate strongly wi th large variations in the initial condition. The initial perturbations req uired to generate the observed variations in the response are relatively sm all, and may be difficult to isolate in a real forecasting situation. In month 3, the seasonal range, variations between responses are much small er. The initial condition loses its influence and the responses all start t o resemble the equilibrium response discussed in Part I.