The effect of precipitation variability on ENSO/precipitation teleconnections in the contiguous United States

An investigation of the spatiotemporal tendencies of the parameters of the probability density function describing precipitation in the last century i n the contiguous United States reveals the existence of statistically signi ficant local trends in both space and time. In such a case the distribution describing precipitation at a site is not constant in time, meaning that t he population characteristics have not remained the same throughout the cen tury. Here we show that when this variability is taken into account, it alt ers the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation sign ificantly and may: often lead to erroneous predictions of ENSO-related prec ipitation patterns.