Buffer effects occur when sites vary in quality and fluctuations in populat
ion size are mirrored by large changes in animal numbers in poor-quality si
tes but only small changes in good-quality sites. Hence, the poor sites `bu
ffer' the good sites(1,2,) a mechanism that can potentially drive populatio
n regulation if there are demographic costs of inhabiting poor sites. Here
we show that for a migratory bird this process can apply on a country-wide
scale with consequences for both survival and timing of arrival on the bree
ding grounds (an indicator of reproductive success(3,4)). The Icelandic pop
ulation of the black-tailed godwit, Limosa limosa islandica, wintering in B
ritain has increased fourfold since the 1970s (ref. 5) but rates of change
within individual estuaries have varied from zero to sixfold increases. In
accordance with the buffer effect, rates of increase are greater on estuari
es with low initial numbers, and godwits on these sites have lower prey-int
ake rates, lower survival rates and arrive later in Iceland than godwits on
sites with stable populations. The buffer effect can therefore be a major
process influencing large-scale population regulation of migratory species.