Dense snow avalanches are analyzed by modeling the snow slab as an elastic
and brittle plate, attached by static friction to the underlying ground. Th
e grade of heterogeneity in the local fracture (slip) thresholds, and the r
atio of the average substrate slip threshold to the average slab fracture t
hreshold, are the decisive parameters for avalanche dynamics. For a strong
pack of snow there appears a stable precursor of local slips when the frict
ional contacts are weakened (equivalent to rising temperature), which event
ually trigger a catastrophic crack growth that suddenly releases the entire
slab. In the opposite limit of very high slip thresholds, the slab simply
melts when the temperature is increased. In the intermediate regime, and fo
r a homogeneous slab, the model display features typical of real snow avala
nches. The model also suggests an explanation to why avalanches are impossi
ble to forecast reliably based on precursor observations. This explanation
may as well be applicable to other catastrophic rupture phenomena such as e
arthquakes.