Predictive factors for disability pension - An 11-year follow up of young persons on sick leave due to neck, shoulder, or back diagnoses

Aims: Although back diagnoses are recurrent and the main diagnoses behind s ickness absence and disability pension surprisingly few longitudinal studie s have been performed. This study identifies predictive factors for disabil ity pension among young persons initially sick-listed with back diagnoses, Methods. An Ii-year prospective cohort study was conducted, including all i ndividuals in a Swedish city who, in 1985, were aged 25-34 and sick-listed greater than or equal to 28 days owing to neck, shoulder, or back diagnoses (n = 213). The following data was obtained: disability pension, emigration , and death for 1985-96, sickness absence for 1982-84, and demographics in 1985 regarding sex, income. occupation, marital status, diagnosis, socioeco nomic group, and citizenship. Cox regression and life tables were used in t he analyses. Results. In 1996, i.e. within 11 years, 22% of the individuals (27% of the women and 14% of the men) had been granted disability pension. The relative risk for disability pension was higher for women (2.4; p = 0. 010), persons with foreign citizenship (3.6: p = 0.009), and those who had had > 14 sick-leave days per spell during the three years before inclusion, compared to those with < 7 days/spell (3.1; p = 0.003). Conclusions. This cohort of young persons proved to be a high-risk group for disability pensi on. Some of the factors known to predict long-time sickness absence also pr edict disability pension in a cohort of already sick-listed persons.