THE EVOLUTION OF POLITICAL-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES IN THE ACTIVE ZONE

Some trade frictions are more important than others because they repre sent changes or possible changes in systemic economic leadership. Base d on several strong assumptions about the nature of international poli tical economy, a multivariate model that differentiates between politi cal economic challenges that lead to intense, militarized conflicts an d those that do not is constructed. Ten iterations of challenges over the past millennium provide empirical support for the applicability of the model. Provided that the model's assumptions continue to hold, it also has clear implications for evaluating the long-term conflict pot ential of the ongoing US-Japanese commercial competition. While an int ense challenge is quite possible, a militarized conflict between Japan and the United States over economic leadership some time in the twent y-first century is not the most probable scenario.