Fall-risk screening test: A prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly

This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable pr edictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1 285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and soc ial functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potenti al predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary inco ntinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identifie d in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.6 5), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and fun ctional limitations: proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subse quent scores of the screening lest ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interva l [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides: a fall -risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.