Turning points in international negotiation - A comparative analysis

A turning-points analysis of 34 cases of international negotiation is perfo rmed in three parts: precipitants (external. substantive, or procedural), p rocess departures (abrupt or nonabrupt), and immediate and later consequenc es (escalatory or de-escalatory). The cases are divided into three types ac cording to issue area: security, political (including environmental), and t rade or economic negotiations. The results are summarized in terms of paths to outcomes: security negotiations are characterized primarily by external precipitants leading to abrupt departures in process that typically turn t he talks in the direction of agreements; process departures or turning poin ts in political and trade talks are usually precipitated by either substant ive or procedural decisions made by the negotiators that also lead to agree ments. Implications of the findings are discussed in terms of the risk-aver se and reactive orientations taken by governments in the area of security p olicy. They are also discussed in the context of strengths and limitations of the comparative analysis approach and in relation to analyses of 11 case s of domestic negotiations in the airlines industry.