Predicting presidential performance in the United States: Equation replication on recent survey results

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables t hat predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emer ged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that ha s been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years , scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents f rom George, Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a sur vey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. McIver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as we ll as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accompli shment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predic tive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W . Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.