Forecasting of Indian south-west monsoon rainfall

An attempt hds been made to forecast the all-India monsoon rainfall by usin g 30 years' pre-monsoon upper-dir mean temperatures (recorded between 1959 and 1988) at stations over India. The importance of Nagpur temperatures dt 850 and 700 hPa during the pre-monsoon season is discussed. Two sets of reg ression equations, one with April temperatures and the other with May tempe ratures, are fitted using the independent predictors. The equations are tes ted for a two-year period (1989-1990). The forecast values are found to be reasonably good.