Dimensions of retrospective voting - Economic performance, public service standards and conservative party support at the 1997 British general election

Studies of retrospective voting in Great Britain largely focus on economic issues, and pay little attention to whether electors associate economic cha nges (Loth positive and negative) with government policy. This paper analys es voters' retrospective evaluations of nine separate policy areas (over th ree main policy domains) in 1997, showing that the more negative evaluation s of government policy over the previous five years the less the likelihood of an elector voting for the incumbent party - especially if in addition t he main opposition party is viewed favourably. This provides strong support for the reward-punish model.