The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment

This research note presents the first global population projections by educ ational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fe rtility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative s cenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes con stant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions r each Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momen tum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educationa l composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because educatio n is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational compos ition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disa ppear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enr ollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated peop le of working age than Europe and Northern America together.