A NEW PLANNING-MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSMISSION CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS ON THE RELIABILITY OF GENERATION SUPPLY FOR LARGE NONEQUIVALENCED ELECTRIC-NETWORKS

This paper presents a hew model for calculating the reliability of lar ge electric networks with transmission constraints. Generation loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE) are calcul ated with and without transmission constraints and displayed for the s ystem and for each load area over a wide range of load levels. A two s tep process first finds the cumulative probabilistic line flow distrib utions from incremental flows resulting from random generator failures and then performs load shedding as a heuristic process to remove line overloads. Convolution of states allows an extremely large number of generator states to be modeled in a reasonable amount of computation t ime. Test results for a large network and for the IEEE Reliability Tes t System (RTS) are discussed in the paper.