Predicting population responses to resource management

The use of limited funding to optimal effect in conservation depends on the costs and benefits of different approaches to predicting population respon ses to management action. Resource management based on predictions from var ious classes of population-level model has had success in increasing popula tions of at-risk species. However, such models might not meet policy demand for more accurate predictions of the extent of population recovery. This i s because, by necessity, they often extrapolate from known data to predict the effect of new environmental conditions. Behaviourally structured popula tion models could deliver greater prediction accuracy because they can trul y predict population-level responses to novel situations. If such an approa ch can be applied to new situations, it could play an increasing role in th e prediction of population recovery following management.