Jl. Bravo et al., Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere, ATMOSFERA, 14(3), 2001, pp. 113-123
We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum
of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressi
ve Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum conc
entrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-
year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteoro
logical and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours b
efore the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for fore
casting of the history of the process and of the meteorological conditions
is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a g
iven ozone level is made.