Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland ba rley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooke d in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem face d by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially high er-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malt ing grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitabil ity of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decisi on problem.