The drying of combustible forest materials is the most important and least
studied stage of the multiphase process of their burning under natural cond
itions. Physical and mathematical modeling of the drying of a layer of comb
ustible forest materials is performed in a conjugate formulation by solving
the equations of a binary boundary layer and the equations of heat and mas
s transfer in a layer of combustible forest materials with corresponding bo
undary and initial conditions. Solutions of this problem for diurnal and se
asonal changes in environmental temperature are obtained for three scenario
s of development of weather conditions. The data obtained are compared with
experimental data on drying of needles of pine and some other coniferous t
rees. A rigorous physicomathematical basis for prediction of forest fires i
s given.