Metal resource constraints for electric-vehicle batteries

We estimate at what size electric-vehicle stocks could become constrained b y metal availability by assessing metal requirement and availability for ni ne types of batteries: Li-polymer(V), Li-ion(Mn, Ni and Co), NaNiCl, NiMH(A B(2) and AB(5)), NiCd and PbA, that contain seven potentially scarce metals /group of metals: lithium, nickel, cobalt, vanadium, cadmium, lead and rare -earth elements. We assess metal intensities (kg/kW h), battery energy capa cities per vehicle (kWh/vehicle), losses in recycling and manufacturing, st ocks of available resources, constraints on annual mine production and comp etition for metals. With pessimistic assumptions for all parameters the mat erial-constrained stocks of battery electric vehicles range from 1.1 millio n NiCd-battery vehicles to 350 million NaNiCl-battery vehicles. Optimistic assumptions result in estimates between 49 million (NiCd) and 12 000 millio n (Li-ion(Mn)) vehicles. The corresponding figures for hybrid electric vehi cles are typically a factor of 10 higher. Critical factors that affect the outcome are identified. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.