Background: This paper uses a straightforward method of quantifying the ben
efits and risks of immunization, illustrated by universal immunization prog
rams in British Columbia against invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b dis
ease (Hib), measles, rubella, and paralytic poliomyelitis.
Methods: Data were extracted from provincial communicable disease and vacci
ne adverse event surveillance systems. Average disease incidence was compar
ed before and after implementing universal immunization programs. Estimates
of prevented deaths and serious disease complications were calculated and
compared with expected numbers of serious vaccine-associated adverse events
(VAAEs).
Results: Average incidence of reported cases decreased 90 to 100% over a 5-
year period after implementing universal programs. These benefits were sust
ained or strengthened over time. Rates of reported serious VAAEs were low.
Discussion: The remarkable success of immunization has created a paradox. D
espite a low absolute risk of serious VAAFs, the relative risk of some VAAE
s can exceed risk of disease in the province.