How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth

The performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth is evaluated for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time peri od 1989 to 1998. Two key findings emerge. First, the record of failure to p redict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is a high degree of similarity between private sector growth forecasts and those of internat ional organizations (the IMF, OECD and the World Bank). The paper also prov ides preliminary evidence on the efficiency of, and extent of bias in, thes e forecasts. (C) 2001 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.