Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Sh ifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well e stablished that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temp oral distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality ( intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without chang es in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attributio n of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors t o the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick -borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-t erm sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudina l range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convi ncing direct evidence of climate change. effects. There is a need to reasse ss the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertain ties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.