The role of climate and natural disturbance in the past provides a context
for understanding present and future changes in biota. The vegetation histo
ry of the Yellowstone region. like that of North America as a whole, is lar
gely one of plant invasions and extinctions in response to changes in clima
te and environment. When Holocene plant migrations are examined on multiple
spatial and temporal scales, several generalities are apparent. First, at
a continental and regional scale, plant migration patterns followed the dir
ection of climate change, whereas at local scales plant colonization was go
verned by site-specific conditions and possibly by biotic interactions. Sec
ond, species were individualistic in their response to climate change, and,
as their ranges shifted across the landscape, existing communities were di
smantled and new ones were formed. individual species met little resistance
from existing communities. Third, rates of species invasion were astonishi
ngly, rapid, suggesting that rare long-distance dispersal events were criti
cal. Fourth, fire during periods of climate change was an important catalys
t in allowing the invasion of new species, but it is unlikely that a single
fire event triggered irreversible vegetation change.
Regional climate and biotic changes in response to projected increases in a
tmospheric CO2 in the next century suggest an even more complex picture tha
n in the past. Model simulations portray changes in temperature and precipi
tation in the Yellowstone region that have not occurred in the last 20,000
years. Likewise, projected changes in species ranges, including latitudinal
, longitudinal, and elevational shifts, require faster rates than anything
observed in the fossil record. Increased fire occurrence may help maintain
sonic native taxa but promote the decline of others. Thus, future condition
s are likely to create evermore opportunities for exotic species to invade
and establish within the Yellowstone region.