Towards an integrated framework for development and environment policy: The dynamics of environmental Kuznets curves

Environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) have recently received considerable att ention in development and environment policy, But little is known on how th e interaction between ecological and economic factors may result in an EKC or other qualitatively different outcomes. We introduce a restricted class of vector valued differential equations for representing the evolution of s ocioeconomic and environmental variables which influence or are influenced by the process of economic development. Our model includes not only the com plete path of each variable over time but also the highly critical interact ions among multiple variables. We demonstrate analytically and numerically that among a multiplicity of possible outcomes, an inverted-U pattern can o nly be obtained under specific circumstances, and requires attention to the multiple factors which form the economic-environmental system, rather than a single dominant one. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.