Longitudinal trends in the applicant pool for US medical schools, 1974-1999

Purpose. To examine the pool of applicants to U.S. medical schools from 197 4-1999 for changes in size and demographics and to identify factors that ma y be associated with such changes. Method. Data on characteristics of the total applicant pools to U.S. medica l schools for 1974-1999 were collected from the Association of American Med ical Colleges' Data Warehouse. Data on undergraduates' receiving bachelor's degrees and unemployment rates were obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, respectively. Variables such as race/ethnicity, gender, age, and first time or reapplica nt status were compared across the study period. Results. The percentage of women applicants increased from 20% of the pool in 1974 to 45% of the pool in 1999, while the percentage of men dropped fro m 80% to 55%. The number of underrepresented minority (URM) applicants incr eased 45% during the period, from 2,890 to 4,181, but URM applicants repres ented only 11% of the total applicant pool in 1999. Between 1974 and 1999, the number of URM men applying to medical school dropped by 18%, from 1,984 to 1,629, while the number of URM women nearly tripled, from 906 to 2,552. The number of Asian/Pacific Islander applicants increased dramatically, fr om 986 in 1974 to 7,622 in 1999, and they now represent a fifth of all appl icants. The proportion of reapplicants grew when the applicant pool grew an d it shrank when the applicant pool shrank. No relationship was found betwe en the size of the applicant pool and economic indicators, age, or geograph ic origin. Conclusion. Changes in the proportions of women and Asian/Pacific Islander applicants were the driving force in the expansion of the applicant pool be tween 1974 and 1999.