Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand, the choice of provider and potential revenues

This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forec asting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The anal ysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what ty pe was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit t ype. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel during the years 1998-2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model empl oying aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was base d on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual u sage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. Th e research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular te lephone market.