A. Tishler et al., Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand, the choice of provider and potential revenues, APPL ECON, 33(11), 2001, pp. 1479-1492
This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forec
asting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The anal
ysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the
consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what ty
pe was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit t
ype. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel
during the years 1998-2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model empl
oying aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was base
d on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual u
sage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. Th
e research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular te
lephone market.