Predicting the future: the role of past performance in determining trends in institutional effectiveness at A level

The analysis demonstrates that the average A/AS level results secured by En glish institutions from year to year are very stable. When account is taken of intake characteristics, however, correlations decrease substantially. T he results show that predicting future 'value added' performance from past trends is unreliable. The implications of these findings for notions of 'co ntinuous improvement' are discussed as well as their consequences for furth er research on institutional improvement.