Spatial economic-hydroecological modelling and evaluation of land use impacts in the Vecht wetlands area

Wetlands provide many important goods and services to human societies, and generate nonuse values as well. Wetlands are also very sensitive ecosystems that are subject to much stress from human activities. Reducing the stress on wetlands requires a spatial matching between physical planning. hydrolo gical and ecological processes, and economic activities. Spatially integrat ed modelling and evaluation can support this. The present study has develop ed a triple laver model that integrates information and concepts front soci al and natural sciences to address the analysis and evaluation of land-use scenarios for a wetlands area in the Netherlands, the Vecht area. This is t he floodplain of river Vecht, located in the centre of the Netherlands. The study has resulted in a set of linked spatial hydrological, ecological and economic models, formulated at the level of grids and polders. The main ac tivities incorporated in the system of models are housing, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and nature conservation. The formulation of alterna tive development scenarios is dominated by land use and land cover options that are consistent with the stimulation of agriculture, nature or recreati on. Two aggregate performance indicators have been constructed from model o utput, namely net present value of changes and environmental quality. The s patial characteristics of these indicators are retained in a spatial evalua tion that ranks scenarios.