Stochastic league tables: Communicating cost-effectiveness results to decision-makers

The presentation of the results of uncertainty analysis in cost-effectivene ss analysis (CEA) in the literature has been relatively academic with littl e attention paid to the question of how decision-makers should interpret th e information particularly when confidence intervals overlap. This question is especially relevant to sectoral CEA providing information on the costs and effects of a wide range of interventions. This paper introduces stochastic league tables to inform decision-makers ab out the probability that a specific intervention would be included in the o ptimal mix of interventions for various levels of resource availability, ta king into account the uncertainty surrounding costs and effectiveness. This information helps decision-makers decide on the relative attractiveness of different intervention mixes, and also on the implications for trading gai ns in efficiency for gains in other goals such as reducing health inequalit ies and increasing health system responsiveness. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wi ley & Sons, Ltd.