Implications of economic reform and spatial mobility for fertility in Vietnam

Vietnam has registered a dramatic decline in fertility during the last deca des. While the causes of such a sustained decline are still not well docume nted, many observers believe that government policies adopted in the 1980s have contributed to lower fertility. This article focuses on the implicatio ns of the Doi Moi program of market reforms on fertility, taking into accou nt the influences of migration and population policy. The analysis is based on a sequential logit model of birth histories of ever married women inter viewed in Vietnam in 1997. The results show a substantial decline, in ferti lity since the Doi Moi program was introduced. The disruptive effects of mi gration are less pronounced, although migrants generally exhibit lower chil dbearing rates, and a somewhat different pattern of parity progression. We argue that the economic reforms of 1986, and the two-child policy initiated two years later, have reinforced Vietnamese women's desire for smaller fam ilies.