The impact of fertility intentions on behavior: The case of sterilization

In this paper, we take a new approach to the question of whether or not int entions regarding future fertility affect fertility-related behavior. Our a pproach has three principal features: 1) it takes sterilization as its outc ome, rather than pregnancy or birth; 2) it is based on a conceptual model i n which fertility-related behavior is seen as determined by a long-range pl anning process, modified by unanticipated fife course contingencies; and 3) it uses data on desired total family size. Using data from the National Su rvey of Families and Households, we find that achieving one's desired parit y has a strong, persistent, and positive effect on the probability of steri lization, supporting our view of the long-term nature of fertility intentio ns. People do modify their behavior in the face of unanticipated contingenc ies, but those effects are unexpectedly small.