The demand for US air transport service: a chaos and nonlinearity investigation

Authors
Adrangi, B Chatrath, A Raffiee, K
Citation
B. Adrangi et al., The demand for US air transport service: a chaos and nonlinearity investigation, TRANSP R E, 37(5), 2001, pp. 337-353
Citations number
58
Categorie Soggetti
Politucal Science & public Administration","Civil Engineering
Journal title
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW
ISSN journal
13665545 → ACNP
Volume
37
Issue
5
Year of publication
2001
Pages
337 - 353
Database
ISI
SICI code
1366-5545(200111)37:5<337:TDFUAT>2.0.ZU;2-8
Abstract
This paper examines the behavior of the US airline industry's service deman d. Monthly aggregate data for the industry are analyzed. While we find stro ng evidence of nonlinear dependence in the air transport service time serie s, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. We also show that GARCH model s successfully explain the nonlinear structures in the US airline industry' s service series. Finally, within-sample forecasts of air transport demand from the GARCH models outperform those of simple autoregressive models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.