Weather modelling using a multivariate latent Gaussian model

We propose a vector auto-regressive moving average process as a model for d aily weather data. For the rainfall variable a monotonic transformation is applied to achieve marginal normality, thus, defining a latent variable, wi th zero rainfall data corresponding to censored values below a threshold. M ethodology is presented for model identification, estimation and validation , illustrated using data from Mylnefield, Scotland. The new model, a vector second-order auto-regressive first-order moving average (VARMA(2,1)) proce ss, fits the data better, and produces more realistic simulated series than , existing models of Richardson [Water Resources Res. 17 (1981) 182] and Pe iris and McNicol [Agric. Forest Meteorol. 79 (1996) 219]. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.