The purpose of this retrospective study was to understand and predict the m
ultidimensional changes in upper lip. morphologic features after segmental
(4-piece) maxillary Le Fort I advancement/impaction with VY closure and afa
r base cinch sutures. The study evaluated longitudinal lateral cephalograms
of 57 patients (42 women, 15 men) 27.5 +/- 11.2 years of age before surger
y. Lateral cephalograms with teeth in occlusion and lips in repose were tak
en 2 weeks before surgery and at least 6 months after the operation. Mean p
ostsurgical duration was 15.5 months. The upper lip predictably moved anter
iorly in a graduated fashion, from 50% (subnasale) to 90% (labrale superius
) the amount of the underlying osseous anterior movement, and showed a slig
ht lengthening (0.73 +/- 1.9 mm) from subnasale to upper lip stomion. The u
pper lip surface contour was also straightened as a result of the surgical
movement. Multiple regression models showed that the anterior changes in th
e landmarks prosthion and facial surface of the upper incisor were the most
important variables in predicting upper lip response. The prediction equat
ions for horizontal movements explained 86% to 94% of the variation, with e
rrors of the estimates that range between 1.27 mm and 1.65 mm. The models,
when applied to an independent validation sample of 14 subjects, explained
between 86% and 94% of the total variation. The conclusion is that upper li
p response after 4-piece Le Fort I advancement/impaction (VY closure and al
ar base cinch suture) can be accurately predicted.