Can maxillary incisor trauma be predicted from cephalometric measurements?

Dental injury is a traumatic event related to many factors, including dento facial morphology. In a previous study in which we used a logistic regressi on model, 5 cephalometric variables were defined as being the best predicto rs of traumatic injury. The purposes of this study were to test the predict ive value of the logistic regression analysis results for the occurrence of dental injury in a new patient sample and to compare these results with th e outcome based on a visual evaluation of cephalograms. The study populatio n consisted of 2 groups of orthodontic patients: patients with injured inci sors (n = 64) and patients with non-injured incisors (n = 90). Cephalometri c skeletal, dental, and soft tissue measurements were made. In addition, 6 professional judges visually evaluated all cephalograms. Classification tab les were constructed for the results of the logistic regression model and f or the assignment of patients according to the visual evaluation of the cep halograms. The percentage of correctly classified patients at the .7 probab ility level was 62%. Surprisingly, the professional panel rendered an equal predictive value. The relatively Inferior performance of both the mathemat ical model and the "eyeballing" may demonstrate that dentofacial morphology is only partially responsible for susceptibility to trauma.