Economic deprivation and changes in homicide arrest rates for white and black youths, 1967-1998: A national time-series analysis

Using time-series techniques with national data for 1967-98, we model the e ffects on changes in age-race-specific arrest rates of changes in indicator s of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (la gged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of i ntraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile a rrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between-race inequality is unr elated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can b e understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro-economic enviro nment confronting young people and their families.