Predicting infestation levels of the nantucket pine tip moth (Lepidoptera : Tortricidae) using pheromone traps

There is considerable interest in using pheromone trap catches of the Nantu cket pine tip moth, Rhyacionia frustrana (Comstock), to estimate or predict population density and damage. At six sites in the Georgia Piedmont, adult tip moths were monitored through one or more years using pheromone traps w hile population density and damage for each tip moth generation were determ ined. During most years, trap catch was higher during the first adult gener ation compared with subsequent generations regardless of population density . Within each generation, trap catch was moderately to highly correlated wi th associated population density or damage levels. Hyperbolic regression mo dels best described these relationships and suggested trap saturation When populations are high. Trap catch during the first adult generation was high ly predictive of population density or damage during the subsequent generat ion. Trap catch during the second adult generation was fair at predicting s ubsequent density or damage. The models presented herein should be used wit h caution because they are likely to be region-specific. Validation of thes e relationships is necessary before widespread application of these models is warranted.