Prediction of uphill time-trial bicycling performance in humans with a scaling-derived protocol

The present study sought to create a scaling-derived cycle ergometer protoc ol (SDP) that was derived theoretically and would correlate highly with act ual uphill time-trial (TT) cycling performance. Local competitive cyclists each completed the SDP (an incremental test to exhaustion) using their own bicycle mounted on a stationary trainer, together with either a short (6.2 kin, 2.9% grade; n=8 men and 5 women) or long-course (12.5 km., 2.7% grade; n=8 men) uphill TT. Maximal power output ((W) over dot(max)) and power at the ventilatory threshold ((W) over dot(VT)) were determined from the SDP r esults, as well as maximal oxygen uptake ((V) over dotO(2max)), using stand ard indirect calorimetry procedures. Actual TT speed correlated very highly with both SDP completion time (r=0.97-0.98) and relative (W) over dot(max) (watts per kilogram; r=0.92-0.97) for both uphill TT races. Correlations b etween TT speed and more demanding measurements ((V) over dot O-2max (W) ov er dot(VT)) ((V) over dot O-2MAX, (W) over dot(VT)) were generally lower an d more variable (r = 0.54-0.97). These results would indicate that two non- laboratory dependent measurements (SDP completion time and relative (W) ove r dot(max)) derived from the SDP are valid markers for predicting actual up hill TT performance. This protocol may be useful to cycling coaches and ath letes in identifying talented cyclists or for tracking changes in cycling p erformance outside of the sports science laboratory environment.