Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in West Texas

The potential for west Texas ranchers to increase the profitability of thei r enterprises by becoming more proactive in their management practices by u sing seasonal climate forecasts is investigated using a focus group and eco logical-economic modeling. The focus group felt forecasts could potentially be used in making decisions concerning stocking rates, brush control, and deer herd management. Further, the focus group raised concerns about the po tential misuse of "value-added'' forage forecasts. These concerns necessita te a revisiting of the value-added concept by the climate-forecasting commu nity. Using only stocking-rate decisions, the potential value of seasonal f orage forecasts is estimated. As expected, the economic results suggest the value of the forecasts depends on the restocking and destocking price alon g with other economic factors. More important, the economic results and foc us-group reactions to these results suggest the need for multiyear modeling when examining the potential impact of using improved climate forecasts.