Ozone predictions in Atlanta, Georgia: Analysis of the 1999 ozone season

ozone prediction has become an important activity in many U.S. ozone nonatt ainment areas. In this study, we describe the ozone prediction program in t he Atlanta metropolitan area and analyze the performance of this program du ring the 1999 ozone-forecasting season. From May to September, a team of 10 air quality regulators, meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists made a daily prediction of the next-day maximum 8-hr average ozone concentration. The daily forecast was made aided by two linear regression models, a 3-dime nsional air quality model, and the no-skill ozone persistence model. The te am's performance is compared with the numerical models using several numeri cal indicators. Our analysis indicated that (1) the team correctly predicte d next-day peak ozone concentrations 84% of the time, (2) the two linear re gression models had a better performance than a 3-dimensional air quality m odel, (3) persistence was a strong predictor of ozone concentrations with a performance of 78%, and (4) about half of the team's wrong predictions cou ld be prevented with improved meteorological predictions.