Modernization, globalization and the welfare state: a comparative analysisof old and new convergence of social insurance since 1930

Convergence of policies and institutions across countries has been a recurr ent theme within social sciences. 'Old' and 'new' convergence hypotheses ha ve been associated with changing concepts and catchwords, such as moderniza tion, logic of industrialism, post-industrialism, post-Fordism and globaliz ation, but share some underlying theoretical perspectives. The purpose of t his paper is to analyse tendencies towards convergence of social insurance systems in 18 OECD countries between 1930 and 1990, a period which has seen our sample of countries develop from predominantly agricultural societies to industrial or post-industrial market democracies. Data from the Social C itizenship Indicator Program (SCIP) are used to examine the development of institutional variables within the various national social insurance system s. Sub-samples of larger and smaller countries are examined separately, in order to test the open-economy hypothesis that smaller countries, being mor e exposed to international pressures than larger ones, could be expected to show higher degrees of social protection and also more convergence. Hypotheses on differentiated institutional barriers against pressures from the processes of transnationalization of the economy, as well as possible c onvergence effects of the supra-national policy making within the European Union, are discussed in the last section.